Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, November 17th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory to recover a good part of Friday’s afternoon weakness. Stocks are starting the new week mixed with the Dow down 10 points and the Nasdaq up 89 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (4.13%), but selling Friday afternoon should keep this morning’s mortgage rates slightly higher than Friday morning’s pricing.

4/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.13%

10

Dow

47,137

89

NASDAQ

22,990

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Neutral

Fed Talk

There is no relevant economic data set for release today. This morning’s sole event was a 9:30 AM ET speech by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson in Kansas City. He didn’t say anything that was a surprise, basically telling his audience that the Fed needs to proceed cautiously regarding more cuts to key short-term interest rates so they don’t undermine their previous efforts to bring inflation down. He added that he considers the Fed’s current policy a bit restrictive, but they are close to a neutral policy position. That means they have interest rates set where they do not boost or restrict the economy. In short, nothing was said that is big news either favorable or unfavorable for the bond market. We have another speech this afternoon that will also draw some attention because the topic is listed as Economic Outlook. Fed Governor Waller is set to speak in London at 3:35 PM ET, meaning if there is a reaction it will come late in the day.

Medium

Unknown

FOMC Meeting Minutes

The rest of the week brings us a few economic releases, one of which is a major report that was previously delayed by the government shutdown. In addition to the data, there is another Treasury auction, the FOMC minutes release and a large number of Fed-member speaking engagements. We may also get additional economic data now that government workers have returned to their desks, but the new release schedule for all but one of the delayed reports has not been posted yet.

Medium

Unknown

ADP Employment

Tomorrow has a new report scheduled for release that will give us some insight into private-sector job changes over the past four weeks. Payroll processor ADP started this release just a couple of weeks ago to give the markets some data on the employment sector during the government shutdown. It is hard to tell if the markets will react to the release because it is so new that it isn’t appearing on most published economic calendars and there are no analysts predicting what it will show. We are mentioning it because there is little else scheduled tomorrow that may drive bond trading.

High

Unknown

Employment Situation

Overall, Thursday is likely to bring the biggest change in rates with September’s Employment report finally being released unless Wednesday’s FOMC minutes give us a big surprise. The best candidate for calmest day is tomorrow. We are expecting to see multiple days with a noticeable move in mortgage pricing this week. Therefore, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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